Drought assessment during 2011-2030 by using output of general circulation climate models (GCMs) in Gilan province

Owing to the rise in water demand and looming climate change, recent years have witnessed much focus on global drought scenarios. Drought as a complex natural hazard is best characterized by multiple climatological and hydrological parameters and the assessment of it is important for planning and managing water resources. So understanding the history of drought in the area is essential like investigating the effects of drought. In this study, at first Climate parameters affecting the drought have downscaled by LARS-WG stochastic weather generator over Gilan province in Iran. After choosing a suitable model, outputs of it used for assessing the drought situation in the period of 2011-2030. Assessing the drought was done by TOPSIS method during 2 periods (present and future). After validation of the method, zoning the drought was performed by IDW method in GIS. Results shown that expanse of situations with lower drought index will increase. Also we will expect more droughts in these regions for the future.