Modeling the future optimum dynamics of urban development based on spatial data for land compatibility analysis (Case study: Shahr-e-Kord)

Site selection of future urban development is one of the most complex geographic decisions that is considered as optimal location determination in the field of land adaptation analysis. This process assesses the physical fitness and socioeconomic and social equilibrium so that urban dynamic has the least impact on nature and minimum environmental tensions. Purpose of this research is to model the future development of Shahr-e-Kord based on comparison of Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Weighted Mean (WM) methods for analyzing land adaptation.

For this purpose, first, digital layers of elevation, slope, aspect, lithology, distance from fault and earthquake focus, density and distance from stream, temperature, precipitation, humidity, wind speed mean, maximum speed of dominant wind and frosty days, density and distance from routes, distance from health centers, hospitals, services and offices, higher education, elementary and secondary education, protected area, urban green space, and land use type were prepared. Then, to determine the relative weight of the parameters, they were analyzed using quantitative analysis and prioritized by pairwise comparison. Finally, by combining the layers based on their weights, using AHP and WM methods, they prepared a zoning map of the region.

Results showed that area of 128.72 and 184.74 km2 (31.6 and 55.22%) of the total study area, respectively, in AHP and WM methods has high to very high suitable for future development of Shahr-e-Kord. These zones are extending substantially to the central and northern parts of study area.

Although observance of ascending order of accuracy assessment index from very low to very high suitability zones in AHP confirms its results, but the results are reasonably due to the high accuracy of WM in prediction of high and very high suitability zones, as well as uniformity and their concentration in land suitability map.