Assessment of the impact of climate change and implementing policies on water supply vulnerabilities

Zarrineh Roud basin plays an important role in supplying water to Lake Urmia and the region's drinking and agricultural needs. Agricultural development, water transfer outside the basin and climate change have reduced the flow into Lake Urmia. In this study, we investigate the simultaneous impact of climate change and managers' s policies on the availability of water resources in the Zarrineh Roud basin. For this purpose, first using AOGCM model and SDSM downscaling model and considering two A2 and B2 emission scenarios, the minimum temperature, maximum and rainfall data for 2070 to 2084 are reduced and then basin's charge was calculated by using SWAT model. The results showed an average increased in water and temperature stress to 6/29 and 5/27 Centigrade degree and an average decrease in annual discharge into the lake under A2 and B2 emission scenarios. In the next step, a comprehensive dynamic system model of the zarrineh Roud basin was developed by taking into account the set of factors affecting it, and the impact of inland and out of case study basin on water resources was investigated after validation and calibration of model. The results indicate a conflict between the agricultural sector and the environmental need of Lake Urmia that increased production and agricultural levels would reduce the inflow into Lake Urmia.