The Evaluation of Threshold Effects of Exchange rate Overshooting on the Value Added of Iran's Energy (Oil and Gas) 1980-2018))

Due to the impacts of exchange rate on the value of energy sector variables, this study investigates Exchange rate Overshooting and its effect on energy sector (oil-gas) Value Added. For this purpose, in the two scenarios, firstly, using the Mandel Fleming and Dornbusch model, the exchange rate was analyzed And by using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Approach, long-run relationships between exchange rate monetary  Overshooting variables and other variables were determined.. In the second scenario, to investigate the effects of exchange rate monetary  Overshooting and its effect on the value added of the energy sector ,we used the threshold regression model (TAR) with two different regimes .According to the results when the exchange rate is below the threshold (149.98), the variables of gross fixed capital formation and currency exchange rate overshooting are not significant and the variables of energy consumption, inflation and capital stock have a significant effect on the value added of the energy sector. Also after the threshold (149.98) the variables of capital stock and inflation are not significant and the variables of energy consumption exchange rate monetary  Overshooting and gross fixed capital formation have a significant effect on the value added of the energy sector.