The Movement Potential Evaluation of the Active Faults Golbaf and Shahdad In Kerman Province (South east of IRAN)

Seismicity is closely related to active Quaternary faults.This attracts many researchers to investigate the quantitative relationships between them. As a new parameter, FMP is defined to quantify earthquake risk.Iran is one of the most active areas of the world in terms of tectonic activities in the Alps-Himalayan belt. One of the characteristics of this belt includes the presence of thrust faults and associated folds along with the general trend of the belt - northwest - southeast as well as transverse faults with north, northwest - south southeast trend . Folded - Thrust Zagros as a part of the Alpine - Himalayan orogenic belt and one of the youngest and most active continental collision zones on earth, with a length of about 1500 km extending from the Tarsus Mountains in northeast Turkey to Minab fault in the northeast of Hormoz Island in southern Iran.the earthquake risk in Iran, especially in populated cities, is high and the high risk areas are located near Iranchr('39')s active faults in terms of earthquake events. earthquake is one of the natural disasters and has been a major threat to human being, over the past history. for this reason, man is always seeking a solution to reduce earthquake risk in earthquake-prone areas. The 180-km-long Glabaf fault system and the NNW-SSE overall Trend comprise several fault-stepped fault sections that have steep slopes (60 to 90 degrees) on both the east and west sides. The Gelbaf fault itself is part of a larger fault system, called the Neyband-Golbaf fault. It is a strike-slip fault system and forms the western margin of the Lut desert. In this paper, The Movement Potential Evaluation of the Active Faults of the Golbaf area is investigated based on the relationship between the geometric properties of the fault and the Regional tectonic stress field region. The parameters examined for the active faults and the ratio of the range of possible movement has been obtained. The results of this method show high compatibility with past seismic records, therefore, this theoretical model is based on the relations between the geometrical properties of faults and the Regional tectonic stress field of dominant dominance, to assess the activity of a seismic fault in terms of different criteria have been proposed. In the empirical investigations, there are various estimates for the longitudinal selection of the part of the fault that the movement recovers for each tectonic seismic zone. The problem with these estimates is the lack of sufficient data available for different states tectonic in Iran. There are also various empirical equations for the relationship between seismic fault length and fault length. One drawback of these empirical equations is the failure to pay attention to the mechanism of the faults, Therefore, the relationship created is for the large region, which will cause an error in seismic power calculation. These points have been applied in some equations, and factors such as cumulative fault accumulation, morph faults geometrical , location tectonic region and seismic features of each area should not be overlooked. In this study, the possibility of faults future movement based on the relationship between the maximum axis of tectonic stress and fault geometry and then the estimation of FMP variable for seismic probability in the surrounding of major and active faults in the studied area was evaluated.

How to calculate the maximum calculated stress is that it draws calculation to the seams conjugate harvested and Schmidt network, the maximum stress in the region studied was calculated and after the structural impressions at  18 Section, the equations of this model were used. Using the inversion method, the main maximum stress is calculated as the regional stress in each section and is embedded in the equations.

In order to properly analyze the study area, The Movement Potential Evaluation of each active fault was calculated in these sections.

According to the Movement Potential Evaluation of the Active Faults  values of Golbaf and Shahdad faults, the Golbaf fault is introduced as a young fault in the study area. Regarding the obtained values, it can be analyzed that, in view of the high epicenters of earthquakes occurring in the northwest and southwest of the area, a tension aggregation in a large area in a perpendicular direction to the north-east-south-east trend of not expecting.