The effect of the liberation of gas price on the resilience of the gas distribution system in Iran

Developing gas supply in line with the policy of replacing natural gas with other fossil fuels and liberalizing natural gas prices as a price policy to optimize consumption. The need to study the resilience of the natural gas distribution system is more evident. this study aims to investigate the effects of the liberation of gas price on the gas distribution system. so, first, Lyapunov power has been computed based on the gas consumption in the residential sector between 2005 and 2017. In the next step, model was estimated using Vector Auto-Regression (VAR) method, by using the Johansen-Uuselus Coincidence Method and the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), the relationship between the price of natural gas and the volatility of the Iranian gas distribution system has been investigated. based on (IRF) shows that in the short run, the Lipanov view is reduced and then increased and its effect is fixed in the long run. based on the (VDCs) shows that the price of natural gas in the short run is more contributing to the explanation of the prediction error of the Lyapunov view, but in the long run its share decreases. Moreover, the momentum resulted from the real gas price to the Lyapunov power variable as the resilience index of the gas distribution system shows that Lyapunov power will decrease in consequent periods and the resilience will increase.