Analysis of the Impact of Bankruptcy Risk Estimation on Auditor Conservatism

Many accounting and auditing variables represent forecasts of future events. Accordingly, decision making under conditions of uncertainty is of fundamental importance in accounting and auditing studies. An important aspect of such studies is estimating the risk of corporate bankruptcy. The estimated risk occurs because the probability of the customer going bankrupt is unknown and must be determined statistically. The bankruptcy risk is somehow different from the estimated risk. Some companies can have the same point estimates of bankruptcy while they do not have the same risk estimates. The level of risk estimation indicates the degree of inaccuracy in the point estimates of bankruptcy. We measure the risk estimate using the standard errors of point estimates of the bankruptcy because the risk estimate is the second-moment risk and measures the estimation precision and uncertainty around the point estimates of bankruptcy. In other words, we use the variance-covariance matrix to compute the standard errors of point estimates. In general, given the importance of bankruptcy and its consequences, our research aims to assess auditor's conservatism by measuring the risk estimates and analyzing their impacts on auditor behavior.

In this study, we first obtained the point estimates of bankruptcy and their standard errors, and then we predicted bankruptcy by specific models over rolling windows over the past five years. Then, we estimated multiple regression and probit models using the data set of 110 companies listed in the Tehran Stock Exchange, TSE, from 2007 to 2017. The data set was collected using financial statements, audit reports on the financial statements, the official website of the TSE, and the official data from the Iranian Association of Certified Public Accountants. At last, we performed data analysis to test related research hypotheses.

According to the research findings, an increase in the estimated risk of bankruptcy leads to a positive effect on the issuance of going opinion and no effect on audit fees.

The main idea of this study is reporting auditors are risk-averse. The estimated risk imposes incremental uncertainty on the risk-averse auditors and consequently, affects their behaviors. On the other hand, our findings suggest that auditors are more conservative when they face a greater risk. Auditors are cautious about their professional responsibility and social accountability related to the bankruptcy of their client firms. Auditors get more conservative along with the increase of the estimated risk.