Analysis of driving forces for land use change in metropolises (Case Study: Metropolis of Tehran)

Changing the use of land is one of the most important challenges in land use planning and has a direct impact on many issues in metropolitan communities. Due to land use changes in cities, patterns of land use patterns vary, and these patterns have different forward forces in different regions. By identifying and measuring the level of influence and the impact of these forces, it is possible to prevent urban problems resulting from the unplanned use of the plan by correctly planning land use changes based on sustainable land use development. Considering the role of forces in urban land use changes and changing the way these forces are influenced by the differences in spatial-temporal conditions, political systems and socioeconomic conditions, and the impact of these forces on each other, this research seeks identification of forces Investigating changes in urban land use and investigating the impact and impacts of propulsion forces on each other in the process of land use change in metropolitan areas of Iran (case study: Tehran metropolis). By identifying and measuring the level of influence and the impact of these forces, it is possible to prevent urban problems resulting from the unplanned use of the plan by correctly planning land use changes based on sustainable land use development. Land use change can also be the result of the growth and development guiding and the lack of guidance for growth and development. The desirability of urban land use improves the efficiency and effectiveness of space-based space and is one of the ways to conserve sustainable resources and prevent the loss of these resources in the city. This process also helps to reduce environmental and airborne contamination, air, noise, water and soil pollution and, by decreasing traffic pressure, helps to reduce social disturbances and it is introduced as an effective factor in human health. . In order to achieve the objectives of this research, firstly, the identification of the forces of land use land use change has been addressed. Also, in order to determine the effect of these forces on each other and to analyze the mechanism of relations between these forces, based on the knowledge of experts, the structural analysis method has been.

The research method is descriptive-analytical and in terms of its purpose. The data gathering method is descriptive survey and statistical population of urban experts in Tehran. In order to analyze the collected data, structural analysis method has been used. The method of structural analysis is a method used to analyze the relationships between variables, especially in large-scale systems with multiple dimensions. MICMAC software is one of the best software tools designed and developed to implement structural analysis.

The purpose of using structural analysis in this research is to determine the forces driving the urban land use changes in Tehran metropolitan area and to identify the type of relationship between them and the total system relations of these factors. Identifying the drivers of urban land-use change, as well as determining their relationships, helps us to provide a strategic planning model for urban land use change. With the help of structural analysis results, it is possible to determine the hypotheses to be tested and, if necessary, change. In cross-matrix analyzes, the software has been developed in six steps including system perception and observation of system stability or instability, identifying indirect effects of variables, identifying key factors and drivers, general understanding of the system, and avoiding partial analysis. Identifying the system's unstable factors, identifying the environment to the interfacing of the impact measure. In the first stage of implementation of the model, in the present study, 49 factors causing urban land use changes in the Tehran metropolis entered the software and were considered for each short indication.Then, based on the data extracted from the questionnaire (a total of 41 experts), the effect of each factor on the other development factors was measured. In order to determine the final number of experts opinion from the statistical survey and use 49 extracted factors as the primary identifiers And analyzed with the help of the MICAMMOCK software. The dimensions of the 49 * 49 matrix are ranked in eight, and according to the results of the analysis, the degree of matrix filling is 63.14%, which indicates that the factors selected on more than 63.14% had an effect on each other. A total of two types of analyzes and graphs and analytical graphs, including one direct effect and the other indirect effects, are shown in the software. The direct effect analysis is in fact the result of the interaction of the initial matrix data, and the indirect effects analysis is the result of calculating higher powers and repeating the initial matrix, which is selected based on the initial proposal of the software of four replications.

This paper has been designed with the aim of identifying the forces that drive urban land use changes in Tehran metropolis based on structural analysis method. For this purpose, 49 agents were identified in eight environmental groups, policies and laws, socio-demographic, economic, cultural, spatial / physical, institutional, and infrastructure facilities - through a review of past and external studies. Factors in the software have been introduced and using experts from urban issues, the effectiveness of the factors has been determined by analyzing the effects of the cross-sectional matrix. Based on the results, among the factors that have the most impact and influence, the factors of urban management goals, comprehensive plan, access to the network of roads, population growth, land prices, economic development situation in the region, price Rents, features of parts, have zoning regulations that are known as key factors in land use land use change. Among the 49 factors involved in the analysis, these factors include urban management objectives, comprehensive Plan, access to the street network, population growth, land prices, economic development status, land use rights, rental rules zoning regulations has the most impact on urban land use changes. These are known as key driving forces in the changes in Tehran's urban land use.