Anticipation of the Occurrence or Non-occurrence of a War in an Arms Race: Based on the Intriligator & Brito Strategic Deterrence-Attack Model

The main objective of this research is to answer the question of what condition an arms race would lead to war and under what condition would lead to a lack of war. For this purpose have been used the Intriligator & Brito (1976, 1984) Strategic Deterrence-Attack Model. The use of weapons (missiles) in this model has two purposes: attack (war) or deterrence (peace). After formulating this model and analyzing the main results in different scenarios, it can be said that the arms race between two hypothetical countries would lead to a war if: a) the two countries have the power to attack each other, but they are not capable of deterrence. b) One of the two countries has attack power, but lacks deterrent power and the other country lacks attack and deterrence power. Also, the arms race between the two hypothetical countries would not lead to war if: a) none of the countries have the power to attack and deteriorate. b) Both countries have deterrence. In addition, when one of the two countries has the power of attack and deterrence and the country in front of it has no deterrent power, the likelihood of a war is high. Based on the results, it can be said that possessing deterrence will play an important role in the absence of war in an arms race.