Investigating the Effects of Economic Factors on Document Forgery in Iran Using Spatial- Temporal Autoregressive Model

Committing crimes as an unpleasant social phenomenon has economic and social causes and in regards to the importance of the issue of crimes in different countries, comprehensive studies have been carried out to identify and determine the causes of committing crimes. It is believed that economic factors are the main factor for all the social structures and have noticeable impacts on the individual activities including committing crimes. This issue has recently gained attention in Iran and the present research is an attempt in this regard. This research is of applied type from type and objective standpoint and of analytical reasoning type from descriptive nature using surveying technique which seeks to investigate the economic factors of the crime of document forgery during a ten-year period (1385-1395) in Iran in which the Spatial- Temporal Autoregressive Model is used together with random effects. In the investigated period, unemployment variances, relative poverty affect the crime of document forgery in Iran with the frequency of 17 percent and 10 percent respectively in a way that their increase causes increase in the rate of document forgery crime and the variance of industrialization as much as 30 percent causes the reduction of the rate of document forgery. Theoretical variances of unemployment, relative poverty have direct and meaningful relations with the committing the crime of document forgery, but industrialization has a reverse relation. Moreover, the economic variance of income inequality was not meaningful in the analysis.