Developing of Reliability Growth Model Based on Nonhomogeneous Poisson Process with Normal Distribution

This paper aims to develop a model for the growth of reliability with a normal distribution based on the Non-Homogeneous Poisson Process (NHPP). To this end, firstly, the framework for modeling the NHPP for the reliability growth equation with the assumption of the normal distribution for failure data is extracted and the equations for the reliability growth based on the nonhomogeneous Poisson process with normal distribution are obtained. Then, to evaluate the reliability model with the given failure data, the maximum likelihood estimation technique was used to estimate the effective parameter in reliability growth. To estimate reliability parameters, the repetitive mathematical expectation methods are used to solve the equations derived from the maximum likelihood estimation. Finally, the proposed model, by implementing the failure data of an aerospace system, shows that the present approach is highly accurate in comparison with the basic reliability growth models, and simulates the process of growth or deterioration of the system with high precision.