Drought Monitoring of Rafsanjani Plain Under Climate Change Conditions

In the last few decades, the increase in the temperature of earth caused the imbalance in the planet’s climate and also caused great changes in most parts of the planet’s earth which named climate change. Drought is a phenomenon which can be affected a lot by the climate change. Paying attention to the changes of drought and also predicting it, can be effective in planning toward controlling and reducing its effects. In this article, by using The General Circulation of Barley HadCM3 and Lars_WG Downscaling model, under the publication scenarios B1, A1B and A2, the changes in the rainfall and daily temperature in the synoptic center of Rafsanjan in the period of 2018 to 2042 was reviewed. With considering the Determination coefficient (R2), there was a great correlation between the data acquired by the simulation, using the Lars_WG model and there was some visual data which could show the ability of the model in the future data stimulation. In the next step, RDI and EDI index were calculated for the basic period of 1993_2018 and future period of 2018_2042. Based on the results, A2 publication scenario, predicts worse conditions for future droughts of this region. Also final results showed that 2018_2019, 2020_2021, 2028_2029 and 2039_2040 faced hydrological droughts in all scenarios and the abundance of drought has increased comparing to the basic period.