Loss of Load Expectation Assessment in Deregulated Power Systems Using Monte Carlo Simulation and Intelligent Systems

Deregulation policy has caused some changes in the concepts of power systems reliability assessment and enhancement. Inthis paper, generation reliability is considered, and a method for its assessment using intelligent systems is proposed. Also,because of power market and generators’ forced outages stochastic behavior, Monte Carlo Simulation is used for reliabilityevaluation. Generation reliability merely focuses on interaction between generation complex and load. Therefore, in thisresearch, based on market type and its concentration, reserve margin, and various future times, a Neuro-Fuzzy system isproposed for evaluation of generation reliability which is valid and usable for all kinds of power pool markets. Finally, theproposed method is assessed on IEEE-Reliability Test System with satisfactory results. It will be shown that if marketbecomes more concentrated or price elasticity of demand increases, reliability will improve