The Long-run Effect of Sanctions on the Central Bank of Islamic Republic of Iran on Health: An Autoregressive Distributed Lags Approach

The central bank of Iran has been under sanction since 2012. According to the debates, these sanctions do not include purchasing medical supplies and equipment. This paper is checking if central bank’s sanction is effective on health of ordinary people in the long-run from an empirical view.

The present applied study was a descriptive, analytical, and annual longitudinal one conducted between 1980 and 2017. The study population included the whole population of Iran. The dependent variable was the number of annual death, and the independent variable was the dummy variable of sanction. Other control parameters including the growth of age dependency ratio, government expenditure, imports, DPT vaccination, Exports and population density were included in the model. Data analysis was performed using Auto-regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model by the Eveiws-10 software.

the findings showed that in the long run, the sanctions imposed on the central bank, growth of age dependency ratio, government expenditure, and imports increased mortality. Vaccination decreased mortality, while exports and population density did not have any effect on mortality and health.

Based on these findings, the best strategies for reducing the mortality (promoting health status) in the long run are as follows: removing sanctions or reducing its effects, taking good social and population policies, reducing age dependency ratio, using financial resources for government expenditure and imports efficiently, and choosing proper public health policies such as vaccination.