Investigating the Quantity of Occurrence of Assault and Battery Crimes with a Mixed Approach of Scenario Writing and Futurology Using GIS in Ahvaz

In crime prevention management, futurology is one of the most important and effective principles in predicting and preparing for crime. The main purpose of the present study was to investigate the quantification of the occurrence of assault and battery crimes with a mixed approach of scenario writing and futurology using GIS in the city of Ahvaz.

This research is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical in nature and in terms of methodology, it is a combination of quantitative and qualitative methods. The information needed to do this has been collected in the form of a library and by referring to organizations. One of the most accurate ways to identify future events is to write a scenario.  

In this study, using some effective drivers in the field of urban assault and battery crimes (pattern of distribution of crimes, population growth and population density, average literacy level of criminals) based on the methods of GIS, Delphi and panel of experts extracted and then it was analyzed. Three possible scenarios were drawn for the city of Ahvaz, which are: increase in assault and battery crimes, decrease in assault and battery crimes and stability of assault and battery crimes.

The final result showed that according to the current situation of the studied variables and the outlined landscape, the most probable scenario of urban assault and battery crimes is related to the increase of the mentioned crimes in the city, which necessitates foresight, crime prevention and finally strategic planning for correct management and rate control reveals crimes numerically in the coming years.