Simulating Future Patterns of Land Use Changes in Sanandaj Urban Area Using the CLUE-S and MOLAND Models

Today, understanding the importance of land-use changes and its affecting factors in urban planning is undeniable. Knowing the ratio of land uses and how it changes over time is one of the critical issues in management planning. Modeling and predicting urban land-use change can help to understand and recognize urban dynamics and it can be considered as an effective and essential tool for planners. The goal of this study at first is to investigate the extent and manner of conversion of existing agricultural and bare lands to built-up areas in the urban area of Sanandaj, and secondly to model the future pattern of these changes up to the horizon of 2032 using the CLUE-S and MOLAND models. The research method used in this study is a combined method based on historical, descriptive, correlation, and comparative methods. This article is an applied research and quantitative and comparative methods have been used to analyze the subject. First, effective factors in the land-use change in Sanandaj urban area were identified based on literature review, observations, and field studies, as well as interviews with local officials and planners, and then, logistic regression as an analytical method is used in SPSS 16.0 software environment to analyze the relationship between land-use variables and independent factors. The results indicate that land-use changes often take place in lands having the highest degree of spatial desirability for that type of land use. The results of both models show a decrease in agricultural and bare lands and an increase in constructed areas. Therefore, in this regard, the eastern and northwestern regions of the study area are facing more land-use changes, and more actions need to be taken to prevent it in the future.