Risk assessment of tomato leafminer Tuta absoluta (Lepidoptera: Gelechiidae) in Yazd province, using Geographic information systems

The tomato leafminer Tuta absoluta (Meyrick) is one of the main pests of tomato in Yazd province. Successful prediction of population fluctuations is one of the key aspects of pest management programs. Geographic information systems have been successfully used to determine actual and potential distribution areas of the pests. High-risk areas of pest prevalence were determined based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) model using ArcMap and ArcCatalog softwares, and Arc GIS sub-software was used to create spatial databases and geographical analysis of the regions. Parameters of altitude, rainfall, temperature, plant hosts and humidity were used to analyses of the effective factors on pest distribution. The results showed temperature by a final weight of 0.431 is the most important factor affects pattern of the pest distribution. The cultivated area, humidity, height and rainfall had a final weight of 0.376, 0.107, 0.056 and 0.030, respectively. The results showed Yazd, Khatam, Bahabad, Ashkzar, Nodooshan and Robat are high risk areas of the pest.