RISK BASED MODELING FOR EVALUATION OF INSURANCE COMPANIES' INVESTMENT IN PUBLIC-PRIVATE PARTNERSHIP IN ROAD CONSTRUCTION

simulation method. According to the reports, the cost of fatalities and serious injuries is estimated to be 1.8 trillion per year, with an average of 3% of GDP per country. Besides, the enormous costs of accidents have caused governments to reduce their consequences and losses by investing in this area. Consequently, reducing the cost of crashes requires an effective strategy and one of the effective strategies is identifying and eliminating Hot Spots. However, they are often prioritized due to financial constraints and so, their immunization is delayed. Using the capacity of the private sector, especially insurance companies interested in this investment, can be very helpful in reducing the constraints. Today, insurance companies' cooperation in promoting road safety is well known in most developed and even developing countries. Roads condition play a key role in road safety and the geometrical features, road design, and infrastructure have a significant impact on accidents. As a result, one of the most important areas of cooperation between government and insurance companies can be defined in road safety projects. On the other hand, studies show that the design, construction and management of highways under PPP has a positive relationship with the results of road safety and the number of annual accidents and the number of fatalities in the Public-private partnerships is less. To this end, a model based on the Public-Private Partnership (PPP) approach is developed for the partnership of government and private sector in immunization projects and assessment of investment risk. This model helps in deciding on investment and risk assessment by calculating the value at risk of IRR for the insurance company and the public sector. In the end, the specifications and cost information of a Hot Spot is taken into account and the IRR for each party is calculated according to the level of confidence desired.