The effect of macroeconomic variables on the resilience of pension funds and the achievement of social rights in terms of jurisprudence

Macroeconomic variables such as unemployment, inflation, government debt have an important role in the resilience or non-resilience of pension funds and the achievement of social rights, which are also considered in economic jurisprudence. In this regard, the present article examines the effect of the shock of macroeconomic variables on the resilience of pension funds and the achievement of social rights in terms of jurisprudence and using the SVAR structural vector auto regression model for the years 1350-1396.

The present study is a quantitative research and therefore statistical methods and models have been used. Specifically, the SVAR structural vector auto regression model was used jurisprudentially to look at the mechanism by which government debt shocks, unemployment, and inflation affect pension fund resilience and social rights.

 The present study was conducted by observing and considering ethical principles. The results of the research are original and in cases such as citations, references to documents and articles, the principle of fidelity has been observed.

Government debt shock with about 41% has the largest share of fluctuations and changes in expenditures and has posed a serious challenge to the resilience of pension funds and the achievement of social rights. The second place is occupied by inflation shock with a share of about 3%. Unemployment shock also had the lowest share of changes in total expenditure variance with about 2%. Therefore, threats of government debt, inflation shock and unemployment play an important role in reducing social security services and thus harming social rights from the perspective of jurisprudence.

Considering the results and structure of Iran's economy, the dependence of government revenue on oil and sanctions and the government structure are the main problems of Iran's economy. Therefore, Iran's economy needs a major overhaul of macroeconomic policy-making methods and structures, especially monetary structures and policies (such as giving positive anti-inflation messages with practical measures to reduce inflation expectations).