The effects of climate change on the distribution of an invasive fish in Iran: Gambusia holbrooki (Girard, 1859)

Today, invasive species are considered as one of the major threats to biodiversity and ecosystem functions. The suitable habitats of these species are expected to be expanded under the effects of future climate change hence it is likely to threaten the existence of native species. Consequently, identifying the current and potential distribution range of invasive species is essential for management of such species. In this study, suitable habitat of Gambusia holbrooki was predicted by using Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) under optimistic and pessimistic (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) scenarios of 2050 and 2080 at the scale of Iran. According to the modeling predictions, the suitable habitats of this species not only will include its current distribution range but also may expand in some other basins. In other words, it is expected to extend to new favorable regions under future climate change scenarios. Our study showed that the distribution of this invasive species in the 19 main basins is relatively high. If preventive measures are not employed, the negative effects of invasive species on biodiversity and ecosystem dynamics will be high. Therefore, this study will be helpful to policymakers for management of this invasive species and the conservation of biodiversity.