Application of Fuzzy Fault Tree Analysis in Risk Assessment of Ammonia Tank Explosion Scenario

Chemical industries often have risks for the environment and communities, due to the use of complex facilities and processes. Also, in the ammonia tanks, the probability of risk of explosion is high, owing to their specific characteristics. The aim of this study is to evaluate the risks of explosion scenario at the ammonia tank in the Kermanshah petrochemical complex

To achieve the purpose of this study, the Fuzzy Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) method was used to estimate the probability of reliability in the basic events. In this study, after drawing Fault Tree for identifying basic events, the probability of basic events was estimated by means of expert’s elicitation, and the probability of minimal cut sets was computed through Boolean logic gates.

According to the results, the probability of occurrence of the top event was obtained equal to 0/054997. In the minimal cut set prioritizing, the failing of pressure safety valves identified as the most effective factor in the top event occurrence, and afterward failing the control valves and human errors were identified.

This study indicates that, based on expert elicitation, a fuzzy error tree method can be used to assess the risk of various scenarios in the industry. Overall, in assessing the risk of the explosion scenario in the ammonia reservoir, it was found that some minor defects, and even human error, could be considered as a major contributor to the explosion.