Assessment of The Impact of Climate Change Through the Last Two Decades and the Next Two Decades on the Temperature and Precipitation Parameters of Alamkuh Glacier Using Satellite Images and CMIP5 Scenarios

In this research, the impact of climate change on the snow and ice covering of Alamkuh glacier in Mazandaran province was assessed using LANDSAT-7, LANDSAT-8 satellite images as well as the regression trends of historical data of precipitation and temperature in the last two decades (2000-2020) as well as projection of GCM models with CMIP5 scenarios over the next two decades (2020-2040). Projected data were evaluated using GCM models including EC-EARTH, GFDL-CM3, HadGEM2-ES, MIRO-C5 and MPI-ESM-MR for the period of 2020-to 2040. The observation data were used with 35-year period (1984- 2014) and LARS-WG-6 was used for GCM models downscaling. The least error method (including RMSE and R2) was used to find the model in which the predicted data best fit the historical period data; the MIRO-C5 model had the lowest error among the 5 models. The results obtained for the last twenty years showed a gradual decrease in the surface of the snow and ice of Alamkuh region, especially in the summer, demonstrating the gradual decline of this glacier. Complete melting of the glacier in summer poses a serious threat to the downstream water resources of the area and the environment around the glacier.