Fitting of Count Time Series Models on the Number of Patients Referred to Addiction Treatment Centers in Semnan County

 Count data over time are observed in many application areas. Many researchers use time series patterns to analyze this data. In this paper, the poisson count time series linear models and negative binomials on this type of data with the explanatory variables are studied. The Likelihood analysis and the evaluation of count time series model based on generalized linear models are presented and investigated. Also, the data of the number of addicts referred to the addiction treatment centers in Semnan county are analyzed based on the proposed models and methods. According to the results of the model selection criteria, the negative binomial count time series model is a good fit for this data and based on it, a monthly forecast for the year 2019 was made.