Assessing the degree of sensitivity and estimating the possible damage of Shemshak basin in case of avalanche using HEV model

In this study, 18 variables affecting avalanches have been studied. These variables are related to the conditions: geomorphological and topographic, climatic, snow and also Some activities are related to human factors. In this study, the avalanche risk map was prepared and analyzed using the risk model (HEV) and the variables affecting the occurrence of avalanches. Avalanche hazard map was prepared using three models: AHP, Garp and MaxEent. Based on three risk factors for avalanches, obstacles in the avalanche route and also sensitivity to avalanches, a risk map was prepared. Comparison of the results with field visits and avalanche occurrence areas and past statistics and information indicate the accuracy of the hazard map with 93.85% accuracy by the AHP method. One of the most important variables in avalanche occurrence in this area is the slope. Then, using two maps of avalanche risk elements and avalanche susceptibility map and avalanche hazard map, snow avalanche risk map has been prepared. The results showed that the avalanche hazard map has a very inherent difference with the avalanche risk map. Areas in the low-hazard category on the avalanche risk map became more important in the avalanche risk map. The most important reason is the existence of endangered elements and the development of residential lands in this area over the past few decades