Simulation and Optimization of Profitability of Jofeyr (Isargaran) Irrigation and Drainage Network Products Using System Dynamics Approach

In the present study, a model was developed using a system dynamics approach to simulate and optimize the profitability of crops of the Jofeyr (Isargaran) Irrigation and Drainage Network located in Khuzestan Province. To validate the results, the statistical indicators of root mean square error (RMSE), standard error (SE), mean biased error (MBE), and determination coefficient (R2) were used. To validate the simulation results of the benefit-cost ratio, the values of these indicators were obtained 0.25, 0.19, 0.005, and 0.96, respectively. Then, to determine the optimal cultivated area of the network and increase the profitability, the cropping pattern was determined both non-stepwise and stepwise in 2013 to 2017 cropping years. In the non-stepwise, the cultivated area of each crop changed from zero to 2 times of current situation. In stepwise, due to social and cultural conditions of inhabitants, this change was slow and 10% of the current situation every year. The analysis of the results showed the success of the model in optimizing and achieving the desired goals and the total benefit-cost ratio increased in all years both non-stepwise and stepwise. For example, in 2017 compared to 2016, production costs decreased by 7.1 percent and sales prices increased by 5.8 percent, and increased the benefit-cost in 2017 compared to the previous year. The results showed that the present model has good accuracy in simulating and optimizing the irrigation network, its cropping pattern, and defining other scenarios.