Foresight of the Iran's Agricultural Sector in 2024 Using Structural Analysis and System Dynamics

The aim of this study was to investigate the future of agricultural sector in region three of the national survey (Lorestan, Kermanshah, Ilam, and Hamedan provinces) in which scenario planning and system dynamics were used. The method was descriptive-analytical. The population consisted of researchers, managers, and experts in the field of agriculture. The data collection was done through library study, questionnaire, group panels, and expert panels. The data were analyzed through cross sectional and relational methods using MacMic and Nasim software. The findings showed that in the future of the agriculture in region 3 of the countries, 34 elements are playing roles. Among them, five have the most significant impact and the most uncertainty, including: commercialization, cutting the value chain, agricultural technologies, international commerce and market internationalization, expert and climate change. Based on the cross scenario analysis borrowed from two aspects of value chain of agricultural products and agricultural product technologies, four scenarios could be suggested for region 3: 1. agricultural sustainability, 2. increased pressure on natural resources, 3. agricultural unsustainability, and 4. non-economic agriculture. At the end, the condition of main agricultural indexes in each scenario are noted.