Estimating the consumer demand for housing in Iran

Over the past two decades, in developing countries, including Iran, with the increase in population and the trend of migration to cities, housing has become one of the acute problems of policy makers and planners. The main purpose of this study is to estimate the consumption demand for housing in Iran. In this study, to estimate the model, uses the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) method and the period is from 1991 to 2020. Findings show that population, permanent income and life expectancy have positive and significant effects and housing prices have a negative and significant effect on the consumption demand for housing. With an increase in population, permanent income and life expectancy in short run and long run, consumption demand for housing is increases. Housing prices have had a significant negative effect on consumption demand for housing in both short and long run. Increase in housing prices, reduces of consumption demand for housing. The error correction coefficient shows that in each period, 64% of the imbalance in the consumption demand for housing in Iran is adjusted and moves towards a long run value.