The Study of Near-repeat Method to Predict Burglary: An Approach toward applying in Iran

In the last two decades concepts such as prediction of crime and predictive police have emerged. Among place-based methods of prediction of crime, the near-repeat method, inspired by epidemics and earthquakes, has shown great efficiency. Based on the committed crime, it is forecasted that in a near place and time another crime will be committed. This method has been practically examined in three German cities in the so-called Precobs project, Malmö in Sweden, Chicago and many other USA, UK, Australia and New Zealand cities. The application of it in Iran confronts the obstacle of secrecy of the criminal statistics and reluctance towards change and requires technical and human fundamental preparations. Technical foundations include producing indigenous software, justifying the operators and holding classes. Human foundations consist of honoring Law enforcement, plus sufficient training and dignifying the actual and potential victims. Applying this method, paired with the participation of citizens in reporting crimes and better self-protection will contribute to targeted prevention and reduction of burglary rate. The article tries to respond to the question if the near-repeat method, considering the limitations, can be applied in Iran and how the obstacles can be prevailed through proper foundations.