Prediction of COVID-19 Patients’ Survival by Deep Learning Approaches

 Despite many studies done to predict severe coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) patients, there is no applicable clinical prediction model to predict and distinguish severe patients early. Based on laboratory and demographic data, we have developed and validated a deep learning model to predict survival and assist in the triage of COVID-19 patients in the early stages.

 This retrospective study developed a survival prediction model based on the deep learning method using demographic and laboratory data. The database consisted of data from 487 patients with COVID-19 diagnosed by the reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction test and admitted to Imam Khomeini hospital affiliated to Tehran University of Medical Sciences from February 21, 2020, to June 24, 2020.

 The developed model achieved an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.96 for survival prediction. The results demonstrated the developed model provided high precision (0.95, 0.93), recall (0.90,0.97), and F1-score (0.93,0.95) for low- and high-risk groups.

 The developed model is a deep learning-based, data-driven prediction tool that can predict the survival of COVID-19 patients with an AUC of 0.96. This model helps classify admitted patients into low-risk and high-risk groups and helps triage patients in the early stages.