Effective Indicators on the Realization of Land Use Pattern and Future Expansion of Zahedan Urban Areas in its Comprehensive Development Plan

Comprehensive urban plans are prepared for the balanced physical development of cities, whereas these plans face many problems and usually fail to achieve their goals. This study aimed to study of land use pattern realization and its relationship with the city growth of Zahedan.

This study was carried out on 2022 in Zahedan. The list of indicators affecting the city was growth prepared using expert opinions and determining the coefficient of criteria in Expert choice software. The opinions of 18 experts were used using targeted sampling. The urban growth in 1991-2022 was investigated by overlapping effective indicators and extracting the growth range in the GIS software. The indicators affecting the realization of the land use pattern were prepared by assessing the opinions of the same experts, and the importance and weight coefficients of each were calculated through the AHP and ANP models, respectively. The final evaluation of the land use pattern was conducted in the BSC Designer software. Forecasting the growth trend of the city area until 1450 was assessed using spatial data analysis in ArcGIS through SLEUTH model.

Physical (49.28%) and social dimensions (32.26%) have the most and least development in the land use pattern of Zahedan. The land use pattern of Zahedan was in an average level (41.86%). According to the SLEUTH model, Zahedan city is developed on the basis of organic growth according the tendency towards the road, and the future growth of the city will be internal on the sides of the existing fabric.

The master plan of Zahedan city was realized less than 50%. This can be seen as a result of the lack of required legal tools and the financial capacity of the municipality.