Evaluating the effects of climate change on the average yield of Iranian oranges with the spatial panel model approach

Climate change has had a significant impact on the global production of agricultural products. Studying the impact of climate change on the production of agricultural products is very important to take preventive decisions to improve agricultural production. The aim of the present study is to investigate the direct and indirect effects of spatial spillovers of climate change on orange production in 10 provinces of Iran, during the period from 2015 to 2019. The data used were obtained from the Ministry of Agriculture and the Meteorological Organization. First, to prove the existence of spatial dependence, Moran's test was performed. Then the spatial Durbin model was determined as the optimal model using the Wald test. The model was estimated using Stata17 software. The results of the spatial Durbin model (SDM) showed that the variables of average annual rain, average annual temperature and cultivated area have a positive and significant effect on the average yield oranges of Iran, while the variables of minimum annual temperature and maximum annual temperature have a negative effect on an average yield of oranges in Iran. In addition, the effect of spatial overflows of cultivated area and minimum annual temperature on orange yield is positive. Spatial overflows of average annual temperature have a negative effect of 1.68 on orange yield. Increasing the area of orange cultivation in the country increases the yield of oranges per unit area, therefore, it is recommended that the Ministry of Agriculture use the policy of integrating orange orchards in the country.