The Receivables of merged banks, management of the Covid 19 epidemic vaccine and policy uncertainty in Iran

Overdue claims are the non-repayment of debt by the recipients on the due date, which is the product of recession, inflation, economic instability, uncertainty and the inability of banks to manage their resources. In economic crises, the closure of businesses and the uncertainty of policymaking lead to a decrease in purchasing power and the inability to pay bank claims. In the winter of 1398, the outbreak of Covid- 19 virus, along with the vulnerable economic structure, severely affected the country's economy. This process led to a significant increase in outstanding bank claims. The official announcement of the discovery of vaccine created hopes for business activists. Now, "the product of the above process for the Iranian economy" is a question that must be answered. In this study, by examining two separate scenarios, i.e. non-linear regression and other shocks, how the above variables affect policy uncertainty using daily data from February 19, 2020 to February 10, 2022. The results of non-linear ARDL model show that new cases and daily deaths in Iran have a positive and significant relationship with policy uncertainty in the long term. The shock caused by the news of the discovery of the Covid-19 vaccine greatly reduced the uncertainty of Iran's policymaking. Economic uncertainty has a direct relationship with the trend of short-term and long-term bank outstanding claims, and although the announcement of the discovery of a vaccine in Iran greatly reduced the uncertainty. But its management and distribution could not reduce the rate of infection and death.