An improvement in the prediction of project performance by integrated approach of fuzzy earned value and risk analysis

This paper proposes an integrated approach of the earned value management and the risk management for predicting of project performance including cost and duration of estimate at completion. In spite of the abilities of earned value management technique in estimating the project future performance merely based on its past, it cannot consider the environmental change or other elements which effect on the future performance of the project. Unlike the earned value management, the risk management technique looks to the farther horizons and deals with the evaluation of the project performance by recognizing the failure modes. In this paper we intend to present the future performance index in combination with the earned value management current indices for better prediction of the projects’ future performance. These indices are determined under real-life and uncertain conditions using the fuzzy approach. In the end, the performance of the proposed method is evaluated by a numerical example. The results show that the consideration of the risk evaluation index improves the prediction of cost and time of projects' completion in the value management model.