Information forecasting in harnessing social disturbance in Mazandaran province

 Social disturbance is an illegal and violent act that is conducted by a group of individuals. Not only does it cause devastation, economic damage, and life injuries, but also it causes insecurity and chaos in society. The objective of this research is information forecasting to harness social disturbance in Mazandaran province.

 This research is in the qualitative framework using the database theory approach. The statistical population is conducted by Mazandaran police command experts. For data collection, 21 individuals were interviewed separately up to theoretical saturation. The demanded data are accumulated by using semi-structured interviews. The method for data collection is a field approach and face-to-face respect to the specialists. The data collection tools were interviews, contexts, and library documents that were analyzed by the thematic analysis.

 In this research, 84 concepts and 14 subcategories were extracted comprehensively; In such a way that the effective causal factors in the occurrence of social disturbance in Mazandaran province are four economic, social, religious, and political factors. The fundamental factors in the occurrence of disturbance in two logical and extra-logical factors; Intervening factors in two psychological operations and social networks; and Strategic factors in three individual, organizational, and social aspects; The effective consequence factors in harnessing social disturbance in Mazandaran province are in three individual, organizational and social factors. Therefore, information systems to control social disturbance should identify the factors that cause disturbance through sociological study in real and virtual space. By strengthening individual, organizational, and social components, the field of satisfaction should provide social security so that society could develop in all aspects.