Estimation of Maximum Horizontal Acceleration of Earthquakes in Kerman Province using Probability Method

Considering devastating events like the 2003 Bam earthquake (M_w~6.6), it is essential to develop up-to-date earthquake hazard maps to design structures in this area. In this study, a seismic catalog including historical and instrumental events was compiled and then 21 seismic sources were identified in Kerman province and its surrounding. Seismicity parameters were estimated for all 21 source zones and an attenuation relationship was selected to obtain local site effect-based seismic hazard maps. Finally, seismic hazard maps, which is one of the basic requirements of seismic design and seismic regulations, were presented in form of the peak ground acceleration (PGA) measures for the return period of 475 and 2475 years, and the high risk areas in Kerman Province were introduced. To investigate the depth of events on Iranian plateau, according to the studies conducted in this study, it is suggested to use only the data obtained from local seismic networks. The results were presented as seismic hazard maps for the parameters of maximum intensity of horizontal ground acceleration, taking into account construction effects with a probability of 2% and 10% over 50 years for all parts of Kerman province to provide all design needs according to 2800 regulations. Using the obtained maps, the earthquake parameter in the Iranian Seismic Code (Code 2800) can be updated. Results showed that, as expected, two areas in Kerman province are with the highest accelerations: The first is the Kuhbanan-Golbaf-Bam fault systems with a northwest-southeast trend and the second is the northeast termination of Zagros toward Makran. Both of these ranges are seismic and of great importance in seismic surveys. These areas include Kuhbanan-Golbaf-Bam fault systems and Jiroft-Kahnooj.