Analysis of Iran’s Per Capita Physicians Based on Probable Scenarios

In recent years, the growth of the middle-aged population, the migration of medical staff and the aging of doctors have caused concerns about the lack of human resources in the field of health worldwide and in Iran. However, assuming official statistics are accepted, the number of doctors per capita in Iran (11 doctors per 10,000 people) is well below the world per capita (30 doctors per 10,000 people). In order to balance the health personnel with the population, the first step is to increase the capacity of medical majors in the national entrance exam. In terms of methodology, the study is quantitative (descriptive statistics) and employs scenario planning. Taking the average population growth scenario (1,9%) and defining two scenarios of staying constant or increasing capacity of medical majors (5% annual increase), it was determined that with a 5% annual increase, the number of physicians per capita would increase to 1.41 in 2034, i.e., the desired per capita of the Iranian Ministry of Health. It will reach the Middle-East region in 2039 and the developed countries in 2045. However, the realization of the above alone will not solve other major issues including: 1) the unfair geographical distribution of doctors, 2) the insufficient number of physicians, and 3) the inappropriate distribution of medical specialties compared to the needs of the society.