Reliability evaluation of different models' recession failure in berm breakwaters; case study Shahid Beheshti port breakwater

Since various relationships have been presented to calculate the recession in the berm breakwater, the evaluation of these relationships in the form of probabilistic is one of the most basic topics in marine engineering. In this study, the failure probability or in complementary the reliability for recession of Shahid Beheshti port berm breakwater is investigated based on six models of Torum (2007), Moghim et al. (2011), Lykke Andersen et al. (2014), Moghim and Alizadeh (2014), Van Der Meer and Sigurdarson (2016) and Ehsani et al. (2020). Four methods of First-Order Reliability Method (FORM), Second-Order Reliability Method (SORM), Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) and Importance Sampling (IS) are applied to obtained the failure probability and reliability index for breakwater at the maximum water depth and 100-year wave height. The results of the MCS show the highest failure probability belongs to Moghim et al. (2011) model with a value of about 0.69, and the lowest value possess to the Torum (2007) model with a value of about 0.29. In addition, Van der Meer and Sigurdarson (2016) and Moghim and Alizadeh (2014) models give the failure probabilities of 0.57 and 0.50 respectively and Likke Andersen et al. (2014) and Ehsani et al. (2020) models presented the failure probabilities of 0.42 and 0.38 respectively. According to these results, Ehsani et al. (2020) and Torum (2007) models which developed for Icelandic breakwaters have the lowest probability of failure. Furthermore, Models of Moghim et al. (2011) and Moghim and Alizadeh (2014) which presented for reshaping breakwaters have the highest probability of failure. Next, sensitivity analysis was performed and the impact of different variables on the probability of failure was investigated.