Selection and Ranking the Ground Motion Prediction Equations for Tehran Region

Earthquake wave transmission from the source to the site is modeled by the ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs or attenuation equations). Considering the high contribution of these equations in the variability of the ground motion in the site, the selection of the appropriate relations for the region is of particular importance. The number of prediction equations is large, but there is no specific relationship for many areas, so it is necessary to use criteria to determine the best equations for probabilistic seismic hazard analysis(PSHA). In this paper, 62 relationships used by analysts in Iran and Tehran region are introduced to the three criteria of Rennie divergence, Euclidean distance and likelihood method, are ranked based on similarity with actual occurrence data, and the most suitable relationships for Tehran are introduced. The results show that the relationship of Zare and Sabze Ali (2006) in all three methods has a very good match with the Tehran region earthquakes. Also, some global relations have a better match than the regional relations obtained in Tehran. The results of the sensitivity analysis show a decrease in the effectiveness of the regional PSHA using the ranking. It also shows that relying on the opinion of experts brings more than 90% confidence in the selection of GMPEs, which seems sufficient in some cases. .If this level of accuracy is not sufficient, it is necessary to use the appropriate weighted equations in the analysis based on the physics-based ranking results. Otherwise, the results of the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis will fluctuate and may not have the sufficient reliability.