Impact of Intercity Bus Fleet Age on Passenger Numbers and Out-of-City Road Casualties

The main objective of this article is to examine the impact of the average age of intercity bus fleets on the number of passengers and road fatalities. To this end, data from the Road Maintenance and Transportation Organization of Iran and the Forensic Medicine Organization of Iran between the years 2018-2022 have been used. Transportation is one of the most important sectors in every country, and a considerable volume of transportation in our country takes place through roads. More than 80% of intercity travelers in the country are transported by intercity buses. Therefore, studying the factors affecting the quantity and quality of bus fleets is of particular importance.Unfortunately, in our country, due to various reasons such as sanctions, inflation, economic difficulties, lack of attracting investors, lack of attention by officials to planning and development, etc., the number of active buses has decreased and the average age of fleets has increased. In this research, data definition, study, and comparison have been used considering the subject of the research. The results show that with the increase in the average age of fleets, the average number of passengers has even decreased after the lifting of the COVID-19 restrictions and had a downward trend. Moreover, the risks and accidents of intercity travel and the increase in fatalities have increased with the aging of the fleets, and the shortage of bus tickets has become one of the problems, especially on special occasions. Proposed solutions to address this issue and reduce the average age of fleets, in the current conditions of the country, require more investment and attention, liberalization and assistance in importing new buses, and long-term support to domestic bus manufacturers to increase the quality and quantity of buses.