Simultaneous analysis of ENSO, IOD, and QBO cycles on dust storm oscillations in western Iran

Teleconnection patterns by affecting the creation and non-creation of wind cause dust particles to rise from the surface of the earth into the air and create dust storms. This research aim is to evaluate the simultaneous effects of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) cycles on the fluctuation of dust storms in western Iran. For this purpose, dust storm codes and horizontal visibility of less than 1 km were used in 38 synoptic stations in western Iran during 1987-2022. By applying the statistical method, the outputs were transferred to the Geographic Information System (GIS) environment, and the zoning of the ratio of the averages was done with the kriging interpolation method. The findings showed that there is an inverse relationship between the teleconnections and the frequency of dust storms in most of the studied stations, which account for 95%, 58%, and 87% of the studied area in ENSO, IOD, and QBO indices, respectively. The highest correlation coefficients between -0.94 and -1 were observed in Piranshahr and Khalkhal stations, which is significant in the IOD index at the 99% confidence level. The results of the interpolation of the average dust ratio to the annual long-term average showed that the coincidence of the cold phase of ENSO with the negative phase of QBO had the greatest effect on the increase of annual dust storms in western Iran in the long-term, while the coincidence of the positive phase of IOD with the positive phase of QBO with a lesser effect is associated with increasing the frequency of dust storms.