Analysis of the Current and Future Prediction of Land Use /Land Cover Change Using (LCM) in Latian Dam Watershed

Accelerated changes in land use/land cover (LULC) cause changes in environmental dynamics and land degradation. The monitoring and modeling of changes, based on a time-series LULC approach, is fundamental for planning and managing regional environments. The current study analyzed the LULC changes, as well as estimate future scenarios for 2027 and 2037. To achieve accuracy, in predicting LULC changes, the land change modeler (LCM) was used for the Latian Dam Watershed. The LULC time-series technique was specified utilizing four atmospherically-endorsed surface reflectance Landsat images for the years t1 (1987), t2 (1998), t3 (2007) and t4 (2017), to authenticate the LULC predictions to obtain estimates for t5 (2027) and t6 (2037). The LULC classes identified in the watershed were (a) built-areas, (b) vegetated areas, (c) bare lands and (d) water bodies. The dynamic modeling of the LULC was based on a multilayer perceptron (MLP) and artificial neural network (ANN) in LCM. The overal accuracy rate equivalent 80.66, 83.21, 84.32 and 85.12for the years t1 (1987), t2 (1998), t3 (2007) and t4 (2017), and Kappa Index equating to 0.80, 0.82, 0.84 and 0.86 respectively. The results of LULC change analysis showed an increase in the build-up areas; and a decrease in bare lands and vegetated areas within the duration of the study period. The results of this research could help regional planners and managers in the formulation of public policies designed to conserve environmental resources in the Latian Dam Watershed and consequently, minimize the risks of the fragmentation of orchards, vegetated areas and degradation of the valuable resources.