Designing future scenarios of political culture in Iran (1402-1412)

This study was carried out with the aim of investigating and designing scenarios of the future state of political culture in Iran, with a future-oriented approach to the category of political culture, which is the strength and distinction of this work from previous works. Knowing the political culture as a way of drawing people's attitude towards the political system is important because, while creating the conditions for understanding the relationship between the various elements of human life, it is considered to be an indicator of the social and political changes governing the future of a political system as a result of intergenerational transformations.

we used quantitative and qualitative methods and the Petershwartz scenario method to answer the main question. in order to collect information, research literature and documents were reviewed in the form of a library method and a semi-structured interview with a panel of 25experts. the Delphi method was used, and to measure reliability, the structural analysis method based on the interrelationship matrix tables based on Micmac software was used. And to design the scenarios, we benefited from the Scenario Wizard software.

five key uncertainties related to the future state of political culture in Iran: myth-making, seeking justice, Ashura culture and Mahdism, linking religion and politics, and seeking independence, which are based on four cultural-political scenarios of religious democracy, religious exclusivity, and democratic participation. and subordinate-participatory political culture.

Among the 4 proposed scenarios, the scenario of subservient-participatory political culture has the highest probability of occurrence.