Foresight in startups: a review of the most common foresight methods in the business model of startups

During the Fourth Industrial Revolution, technological advancements have posed new challenges for businesses. Traditional methods of operation often rely on historical evidence and past indicators, making them susceptible to discontinuous changes. Consequently, managing and understanding uncertainties has led to the growing importance of future-oriented approaches in designing business models. However, no comprehensive study has been conducted on suitable foresight methods for designing business models in startups. Given the unique characteristics of startups, such as age, growth, and resource constraints, the methods that commonly employed by medium and large enterprises may not be applicable to them. Therefore, there is a need for independent research in this area. The main question of this research is: "What are the most important foresight methods that are considered in the analysis or design of the business model in startups?". Based on this question, a quantitative approach using the scientometric method and a qualitative approach using the questionnaire method were used. Based on scientometric studies, it was revealed that the trend of using forecasting methods in designing and developing business models is growing. Summarizing the obtained results shows that the "scenario" method is the most important appropriate foresight method in the design of a futuristic business model.