Application of Triple Predictive Methods in Assessing Drought Impact on the Hamoun Lake Fishery

Drawing on three predictive methods including ARIMA, Single-, and Double-Exponential Smoothing, this study has predicted and estimated rates of the fishing, wholesale fish prices and levels of the expected revenues for fishermen in the Sistan region during the five-year period of drought, 2000-2004. Time series data were collected from Sistan and Baluchestan Fisheries Corporation and Sistan and Baluchestan Water Affairs Organization. Results of the study indicate that the fishermen have forgone a revenue of about 150 billion rials (US$ 16,300,000) during the period; and they have indeed made simply 0.25 percent of the expected revenues. Since predicting the rates of fishings and wholesale fish prices play a key role in a decision-making process, it was carried out for the years 2005 and 2006, using the above methods. Accordingly, the predicted values for the rates of fishings and fish prices include 2467.7 tonnes and 21330.3 rials (US$ 2.3) for 2005 as well as 2465.2 tonnes and 14169.09 rials (US$ 1.5) for 2006 respectively.