Simulation of Stochastic Inflow to an Irrigation Reservoir and Performance Analysis

The stochastic property of inflow to the reservoir system makes the forecast of operation rules in reservoirs to have great importance for irrigation of farmlands. The aim of simulation technique is to develop a mathematical model to predict a behavior of reservoir system in future operation periods. Decision makers make a good management for system operation by application of different scenarios. Aras Baran reservoir with 25MMC active volume was constructed for the purpose of irrigating the 3200 ha of Keleyber farmlands. In this research Monte Carlo technique was applied to generate the synthetic inflows by the use of local historical data for the purpose of system behavior prediction. Using the generated data the decision variables (Reservoir storage, precipitation, evaporation and spill) were determined and operation policy of reservoir was identified. The results show that in the 15 percent of times storage volume in the reservoir greater than form reservoir total capacity and therfore excess water will spills.