Fuzzy Evaluation of Long-Term Impacts of Electrical Appliances Efficiency Improvement on Load Pattern

Evaluation of long-term home electrical appliance efficiency improvement scenarios on load and energy pattern needs comprehensive and precise modeling taking to account a variety of uncertainties. In the modeling process, all effective parameters should be considered. Estimation is the main source of information in this process which is a long-term large scale impact assessment procedure. Furthermore, the non homogeneous structure of load behavior in response to DSM policies makes the problem more sophisticated. The presented method implies fuzzy numbers to model the main uncertainties of the demand side reactions to the proposed DSM program. Here, the social classes of customers and their behaviors regarding energy utilization as well as time dependency of the problem parameters are taken into account. The paper focuses on the efficiency improvement of the electric appliances in Iran as a long-term DSM program, due to their considerable share in electricity consumption in residential sector. Finally, the numerical results are presented.