Choosing a Potential C rop Pattern by Using AHP Analysis Model (Case Study: Torbat-e-Jam Plain)

Torbat-e-Jam is one of the main agricultural producer cities in Khorasan-e-Razavi province. More than 80 percent of cultivated areas are irrigated and about 90 percent of that area is irrigated by groundwater, which would result in lowering groundwater table about 1.44 m annually, that wasn’t renewed by rainfalls. These conditions would appear in negative water balance. Then continuity of present crop pattern in long run is not possible. In this study a crop pattern introduced by using AHP model and knowing farmer's mental priorities and decision-making indices in order to stabilize their income and also reduce groundwater depletion. Results indicated that mental priorities of farmers are respectively: net income (profit), amount of water use, production costs and labor employment. In the proposed crop pattern, water use would decrease by 8.84%, gross income would increase to 1.06%, production costs would increase to 11.7% and employment level was unchanged. Also governmental protection policies like input subsidies in short run and increasing productivity of irrigation system in long run is suggested to encourage farmers accepting this crop pattern.