Determination of Time Distributed Regression Model for Intense Rainfalls of Tabriz

The design storm is one of the main elements in flood estimation, as the choice of a design storm is an essential step in the many commonly used methods for estimation of design floods. Regarding to the existence of temporal variations in heavy storms, recognition of the storm temporal pattern is an important aspect. Application of storm temporal pattern in watershed hydrological modeling is a great necessity, as the main input, to gain more accurate results. In this research the dimensionless mass curves of intense storms of Tabriz station were extracted for different duration and average dimensionless mass curve were obtained using Pilgrim mean method. The mathematical model of each mass curve a general regression model for the average one as the temporal pattern of Tabriz storms were developed. The comparison of observed storms and those resulted from general regression model (temporal pattern model) indicated the closeness of them which confirmed the model goodness of fit.