Evaluation of LARS-WG model in simulation of some observed meteorological parameters in Golestan province (1993-2007)

According to the IPCC report, due to increasing greenhouse gases, climate change and global warming is occurring. There are many methods for future climate change modeling and assessment. One of the most important statistical methods is generating daily weather data from General Circulation Models (GCM outputs under different emission scenarios using Weather Generator (WG) techniques. To use the GCM outputs (which have small spatial resolution) on the local scale, it is necessary to downscale GCM's outputs by either dynamical or statistical methods. Because of heavy computational requirements of dynamically downscaling, some efforts have been done to prepare methods with less computational requirements. Weather Generators technique is one of these methods that is capable to extended weather station data to the future by using WG scenarios. In this paper capability of LARS-WG model in simulation of meteorological data including maximum and minimum temperature, precipitation and radiation in 3 synoptic stations of Golestan Province including Gorgan, Gonbad Kavous and marave tappeh and 3 climatology stations, including Bandar-e torkaman, kalaleh and Agh Togheh has been studied in the period of 1993-2007. By comparing observed data and generated data, we found that the greatest error has been found in radiation data. Accuracy of the model in simulation of minimum and maximum temperatures is statistically accepted. The greatest errors of radiation, rainfall, minimum temperature and maximum temperature were found in gorgan with 0. 6 hr, kalaleh with 6. 1 mm, maraveh tapeh with 0. 5 ْC and agh togheh with 0. 4 ْC, respectively. Finally, it is highly recommended that LARS-WG could be used as a reliable tool for future climate assessment over Golestan province.