Development of Deterioration Probabilistic Model on the basis of Weibull Distribution for Rail Wear: Case Study in Lorestan Railway

The vital part of every overall maintenance system is “predicting the future condition” sector. This sector will receive all data which are “gathered by inspection systems and saved in data base” and predict the future condition by analyzing this information. In this paper, first of all, the rail condition was categorized according to definition of rail wear defect index and thereafter, the future rail condition on the basis of wear was predicted. In fact, by having two “time and line passing traffic” variables, the future rail condition can be predicted. In addition, the rail life, from the wear point of view, can be estimated by Deterioration Model. Actually, in this research, rail wear in curved track with 250 meters radius was measured with field scan on six - month periods and rail life was predicted by Deterioration Probabilistic Model.